Craps Odds Explained: Exact Probabilities, House Edge by Bet and the Best Craps Bets

Craps odds all come from one fact: two six-sided dice make 36 equally likely combinations, and 7 is the most common total. From there you can calculate every bet. The pass line wins 244/495 of decisions (49.29%), giving a house edge of 1.41%. The odds bet behind it has no edge at all, while some proposition bets cost more than ten times as much.

This guide shows the dice probabilities (checked with our own 1-million-roll simulation), works through the pass line math step by step, and ranks the common craps bets by cost.

How craps works

Craps is played in rounds, each started by a come-out roll:

1. Come-out roll. A pass line bet wins immediately on 7 or 11 and loses on 2, 3 or 12 ("craps").
2. Point. Any other total (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) becomes the point.
3. Point phase. The shooter keeps rolling. Pass line wins if the point repeats before a 7; it loses if a 7 comes first.

Don't pass is broadly the opposite bet: you're betting against the shooter. Around these two core bets sit dozens of other craps bets on single numbers or combinations.

The dice probabilities behind every craps bet

Exact Our simulation

The simulated shares sit within about 0.1 percentage points of the exact values. Every craps bet is just a question about this distribution.

Pass line odds: the 1.41% house edge worked out

The pass line looks close to a coin flip, but it's slightly worse. Here's the exact calculation.

Come-out wins: 7 (6 ways) or 11 (2 ways) = 8 ÷ 36.

Point wins: if the point is set, only two totals matter from then on: the point and 7. Everything else is a re-roll. So the chance of making a point is:

Putting it together, using the multiplication rule for independent rolls (as in OpenStax's probability rules):

An even-money bet that wins 49.29% of the time has an edge of 1 − 2 × 244/495 = 7/495 = 1.41%. Our exact calculation gives 1.4141% for pass and 1.3636% for don't pass, matching the 1.41% and 1.36% published by the Wizard of Odds.

The craps odds bet: true odds payout

Once a point is set, you can back your pass or don't pass bet with an odds bet. It's paid at exactly true odds, so its house edge is 0%, according to the Wizard of Odds.

True odds for a pass bettor come straight from the table above: the number of ways to roll 7 versus the number of ways to roll the point.

Because the odds bet costs nothing on average, adding it lowers the edge on the total amount you put at risk. With odds equal to your pass bet (1x odds), you place the odds bet only when a point is set, which happens 24 times in 36 come-outs:

That's still a loss, just a smaller one per unit wagered. Bigger odds also mean bigger swings.

Place bets, buy bets and proposition bets

Place bets pay if a chosen number rolls before a 7, at less than true odds. The Wizard of Odds lists these edges per bet resolved:

Buy bets cover the same numbers. The difference between place and buy in craps is how the casino takes its cut: a buy bet is paid at true odds, and the casino charges a commission instead of shading the payout. Commission rules differ between casinos, so we don't quote a single edge; compare the exact terms at the table.

Proposition bets are one-roll bets in the middle of the table. Any seven wins on the next roll only, with a 6 ÷ 36 = 16.67% chance, and the Wizard of Odds puts its house edge at 16.67%, more than ten times the pass line.

Best craps bets, ranked by house edge

Craps strategy: what works and what doesn't

What helps:

• Stick to pass or don't pass plus odds. It's the cheapest combination in the game.
• Prefer place 6 and 8 over place 4 and 10 if you want place bets: 1.52% versus 6.67%.
• Size the odds bet to your bankroll. Zero edge doesn't mean zero risk; larger odds bets mean larger swings.

What doesn't:

• Progressions. Doubling after losses doesn't change any bet's edge, as the Wizard of Odds' Martingale analysis shows.
• "Hot" and "cold" shooters. Each roll is independent; expecting a 7 because one is "due" is the gambler's fallacy.
• Covering many numbers. More bets mean more total action and more expected loss.

Playing dice games with crypto

If you play dice games with crypto, you'll also meet crypto dice, which uses a random number instead of two physical dice and lets you set your own win chance. If that appeals, our crypto dice game guide covers roll-under odds and a 20,000-session bankroll test, and the dice odds calculator works out win chance, multiplier and expected loss for any target.

Whichever dice game you play, a stablecoin bankroll in USDT keeps your budget fixed in dollar terms; our USDT guides explain networks and fees. For other provably fair games with clear maths, see how crash odds work. Every dice guide is collected on our dice games hub.

Common mistakes

• Making proposition bets because they pay big: any seven's 16.67% edge is the price.
• Skipping the odds bet, the only zero-edge wager available.
• Confusing place and buy bets without checking the table's commission rules.
• Believing a run of numbers makes a 7 more or less likely on the next roll.