Dice games · Free tool
Dice Odds Calculator: Win Chance, Multiplier and Expected Loss
Quick answer
For roll-under crypto dice, your win chance is target ÷ 100 and the payout multiplier is (1 − house edge) ÷ win chance. At a 49.5 target and 1% edge you win 49.5% of rolls at 2.00x. Every target costs the same on average: 1% of what you bet. For two six-sided dice, the chance of rolling a 7 is 6 in 36, or 16.67%.
| Win chance (roll under) | target ÷ 100 |
|---|---|
| Multiplier | (1 − house edge) ÷ win chance |
| Expected loss per bet | bet × house edge, at every target |
| Odds of rolling a 7 with 2 dice | 6 of 36 = 16.67% |
Use this dice odds calculator to see your exact win chance, payout multiplier and expected loss for crypto dice at any target, or to work out the odds of rolling any total with one to six regular dice. Change any number and the results update instantly.
The defaults above show the classic setup: roll under 49.5 with a 1% house edge pays 2.00x.
How the crypto dice calculation works
In a roll-under dice game, the result is a number from 0 to 99.99. You pick a target and win if the roll lands below it. Provably fair dice games generate the roll from a hashed seed, so each result is independent of the last.
win chance = target ÷ 100 multiplier = (1 − house edge) ÷ win chanceRolling over works the same way, with win chance = (100 − target) ÷ 100.
Worked example: target 25, 1% edge, 10 USDT bet.
- Win chance = 25 ÷ 100 = 25%
- Multiplier = 0.99 ÷ 0.25 = 3.96x
- Profit on a win = 10 × (3.96 − 1) = 29.60 USDT
- Expected result per bet = 0.25 × 29.60 − 0.75 × 10 = −0.10 USDT, which is 1% of the bet
That last line is the key point. Whatever target you pick, the expected loss is bet × house edge.
Win chance and multiplier for common targets
| Roll under | Win chance | Multiplier (1% edge) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 49.5000x |
| 5 | 5% | 19.8000x |
| 10 | 10% | 9.9000x |
| 20 | 20% | 4.9500x |
| 25 | 25% | 3.9600x |
| 33 | 33% | 3.0000x |
| 40 | 40% | 2.4750x |
| 50 | 50% | 1.9800x |
| 60 | 60% | 1.6500x |
| 66 | 66% | 1.5000x |
| 75 | 75% | 1.3200x |
| 80 | 80% | 1.2375x |
| 90 | 90% | 1.1000x |
| 95 | 95% | 1.0421x |
| 98 | 98% | 1.0102x |
We also rolled 1,000,000 simulated dice at five targets to check the formula. Each came back within a few hundredths of a percent of the theoretical 99% return:
| Target | Observed win rate | Observed return | Theoretical return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9.999% | 98.993% | 99.0% |
| 25 | 24.995% | 98.979% | 99.0% |
| 49.5 | 49.528% | 99.057% | 99.0% |
| 75 | 75.002% | 99.002% | 99.0% |
| 90 | 90.011% | 99.013% | 99.0% |
Odds of dice rolls with regular dice
For physical six-sided dice, every face is equally likely, so the chance of a total is the number of ways to make it divided by 6 to the power of the number of dice. With two dice there are 36 outcomes:
| Total | Ways (of 36) | Exact chance | Our 1M-roll check |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 2.78% | 2.75% |
| 3 | 2 | 5.56% | 5.56% |
| 4 | 3 | 8.33% | 8.25% |
| 5 | 4 | 11.11% | 11.14% |
| 6 | 5 | 13.89% | 13.89% |
| 7 | 6 | 16.67% | 16.62% |
| 8 | 5 | 13.89% | 13.95% |
| 9 | 4 | 11.11% | 11.13% |
| 10 | 3 | 8.33% | 8.35% |
| 11 | 2 | 5.56% | 5.58% |
| 12 | 1 | 2.78% | 2.77% |
P(total) = ways to make the total ÷ 6^nTwo dice: P(7) = 6 ÷ 36 = 16.67%. Three dice: P(10) = 27 ÷ 216 = 12.5%.
Seven is the most common total with two dice, which is why it matters so much in craps odds.
What the numbers mean for your bankroll
The expected loss is fixed, but how long a bankroll lasts depends heavily on the target. Our dice game guide simulated 100 USDT bankrolls betting 1 USDT at a time:
| Roll under | Multiplier | Doubled to 200 USDT | Went bust |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9.90x | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 49.5 | 2.00x | 8.7% | 66.3% |
| 90 | 1.10x | 0.0% | 57.3% |
High-multiplier targets give you a real chance of doubling quickly but bust often. Low-risk targets grind slowly, and the house edge wears the bankroll down over thousands of bets.
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Related guides on dice and probability
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of rolling a 7 with 2 dice?
There are 36 equally likely outcomes with two six-sided dice, and 6 of them add up to 7 (1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1). So the chance is 6 ÷ 36 = 16.67%, or odds of 5 to 1 against. Seven is the most likely total.
Does a lower target give better odds in crypto dice?
A lower target gives a lower win chance and a higher multiplier, but the expected loss is the same: bet × house edge. At a 1% edge, you lose 1 USDT per 100 USDT wagered on average at every target. Only the size of the swings changes.
How is the dice multiplier calculated?
Multiplier = (1 − house edge) ÷ win chance. With a 1% edge and a 25% win chance, the multiplier is 0.99 ÷ 0.25 = 3.96x. Without a house edge it would be exactly 4x, so the edge is the gap between the fair and the paid multiplier.
What is the chance of losing 10 rolls in a row?
It's (1 − win chance) to the power of 10. At a 49.5% win chance that's 0.505^10 ≈ 0.11%, about 1 in 927. At a 10% win chance it's 0.9^10 ≈ 34.9%, so long losing streaks are normal at low targets. The calculator shows this for any target.
Sources
- Provably Fair: Game Events — Stake.com. Limbo uses houseEdge 0.99 (1%), so P(result >= x) = 0.99/x; Plinko path per row; Mines on 5x5 grid
- Gambling: Chances, probabilities and odds — Encyclopaedia Britannica. Probability = favourable/total; odds = unfavourable to favourable
- Two Basic Rules of Probability — OpenStax, Rice University. Multiplication rule; independent events